President Trump said on Oct. 25 that he is choosing between a deal with Iran and action to “finish them off,” CBS News reported, adding there would be no strike “today” but not ruling one out. Iran’s foreign ministry said messages were still passing to Washington through intermediaries, and officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan were scheduled for security talks in Tehran on Oct. 26.
Markets are pricing the risk. Brent crude rose 3.5% on Oct. 23 to more than $117 a barrel, its highest since March, after starting the month under $97, according to CBS. The Straits Daily Brief put Brent near $116 and WTI near $102 on Oct. 26, with commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz still a fraction of normal.
Drivers feel it. AAA’s national average for regular was about $4.27 a gallon on Oct. 27, and diesel averaged about $6.35, just under its September record of about $6.53, Fox News reported.
For Texas the war cuts both ways. Higher prices mean more revenue for Permian producers, royalty owners and the state’s severance-tax funds. They also mean higher costs for farmers, ranchers, truckers and every family that fills a tank.
Why it matters. Energy security is national security, and Texas is the backbone of both. The longer Hormuz stays constrained, the more the country leans on Texas crude, refineries and ports, which is an argument for permitting and pipelines at home.
The other side. Critics of the administration argue the war and blockade have caused the price spike; the White House argues prices will fall once the conflict is settled and Iran stops attacking shipping.
Open questions. Whether a deal or a strike comes before or after the Nov. 3 midterms, and how quickly prices would ease if the strait reopened.
