A Fox News poll of 881 likely Texas voters puts Democrat James Talarico at 51% and Republican Ken Paxton at 49% in the U.S. Senate race, a 2-point gap inside the poll’s 3-point margin of error. The survey was conducted Sept. 24–28 by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), according to FOX 4.
The candidates’ images differ more than the head-to-head. Talarico is rated 52% favorable and 44% unfavorable; Paxton is 40% favorable and 58% unfavorable. Both carry a warning label with voters: 53% say they are concerned Talarico is too liberal, while 51% say they are concerned Paxton is too close to President Trump.
The coalitions look familiar. Paxton wins 74% of white evangelical Christians, 65% of white men without a college degree, 57% of rural voters and 55% of voters 65 and older. Talarico wins 79% of Black voters, 65% of moderates, 64% of Hispanic voters and 62% of voters under 35. One number Republicans will watch: about 20% of voters who backed Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary and runoff now support Talarico.
Pocketbook pressure is the backdrop. Sixty-eight percent call the cost of living extremely important to their vote, ahead of Trump (48%) and immigration (47%). Thirty-five percent say they are falling behind financially, and that group backs Talarico by 32 points.
Why it matters. This is a turnout race. Paxton’s path runs through rural Texas, evangelical churches and older voters, the same coalition that has carried Republicans statewide for three decades. The Cornyn-voter defection is the soft spot, and it is one Paxton can still work on in the final week.
The other side. Talarico’s campaign points to his favorability edge and cross-party appeal; Paxton’s allies note the race remains within the margin of error in a state Trump carried easily, and that the poll was taken a month before Election Day.
Open questions. Whether the Cornyn voters drifting to Talarico come home in the final week, and how the poll squares with early-vote turnout patterns in rural counties.
