A new poll from the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs finds Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race for Texas' open U.S. Senate seat, KERA News reported Monday. Among likely voters, Talarico had 48% to Paxton's 46%, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3% and 3% undecided. The poll's margin of error is 2 percentage points, meaning the two major-party candidates are effectively within the margin.
The survey was coauthored by Mark Jones of Rice University's Baker Institute. The KERA report did not state the poll's field dates or sample size, so readers should look to the Hobby School's own release for those details before drawing conclusions.
Jones said the UH poll is less favorable to Talarico than other recent surveys. “In contrast, in most polls being done, Talarico has an advantage,” he said, adding that Talarico's late-campaign performance is the strongest he has seen from a Texas Democrat in decades. Other polling organizations, including Marist, have also published October surveys of the Texas race, and those results were not reviewed for this article.
The same survey tested the race for railroad commissioner, which oversees the state's oil and gas industry despite its name. Republican Bo French had 45%, Democrat Jon Rosenthal 43% and Libertarian Arthur DiBianca 2%, with 10% undecided. Jones said “the more people learn about Bo French, the less they like Bo French.” The KERA report said the governor's race between Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa has also tightened, but it did not give topline numbers.
The results arrive on the first day of early voting, which runs through Oct. 30, with Election Day on Nov. 3. Polls are snapshots rather than predictions, however, and Texas voters have often looked different in the voting booth than they did in survey samples.
Why it matters to Texas readers. A two-point race with a 2-point margin of error is a reminder that no outcome is decided until ballots are counted. Conservatives who are tempted to treat a lead as safe, and anyone who is tempted to stay home because a poll looks lopsided, should remember that turnout is the only number that settles an election. We encourage readers to read the actual poll release, weigh several pollsters rather than one, and vote.
Open questions: this outlet could not confirm the poll's field dates, sample size or the topline figures for the governor's race from the report we reviewed, and we have not independently reviewed other pollsters' October results.