Texas voters set the stage for this November's governor's race on March 3, when Gov. Greg Abbott and state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, D-Austin, each won their party's primary outright. Abbott took roughly 81.8% of the Republican primary vote against a crowded but lower-profile field, with his closest challenger, Pete Chambers, drawing about 11.2%. On the Democratic side, Hinojosa won a genuinely competitive nine-candidate primary with about 58.5% of the vote, comfortably ahead of second-place finisher Chris Bell, who took roughly 9.5%. Neither race required a runoff.
Abbott, seeking a fourth term, has built his campaign around the same core themes that have defined his tenure: border security, tax relief, school choice, and continued economic growth tied to the state's business-friendly reputation. Hinojosa, a five-term state representative from Austin, has run on public education funding, property tax relief structured differently than the GOP's approach, and reproductive health policy — areas where she's tried to draw the sharpest contrasts with the incumbent. Her primary win was notable less for the margin than for the fact that she cleared a large field of better-funded and better-known Democratic contenders, including former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell and 2018 nominee Andrew White, establishing her as the clear standard-bearer heading into the fall.
What's drawn the most attention since March is how much the general election has tightened. Public polling has moved steadily in Hinojosa's direction over the course of the year: surveys that showed Abbott ahead by roughly eight points in January had narrowed to six points in April, five in May, three in June, and roughly one point in both July and August, according to polling tracked by The Texan. That trend isn't uniform — a New York Times/Siena poll in June still showed Abbott up seven points, 51%-44%, and a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll from the same month found a similar seven-point gap — while a Fox News survey in July put the race within a single point and a Texas Public Opinion Research poll found Abbott at 45%, Hinojosa at 42%, with 10% undecided. Reasonable people can look at that range of numbers and reach different conclusions about how real the tightening is; what's consistent across pollsters is the direction of the trend, even if the size of the gap remains in dispute this close to November.
The crosstabs point to where each campaign is focused down the stretch. Hinojosa holds wide leads with independent and moderate voters — by as much as 17 points with independents and 21 points with moderates in some polling — along with a substantial advantage among voters under 35 and an overwhelming lead among Black voters. Abbott's strength runs through college-educated Republicans and the coalition that has delivered four statewide Republican sweeps in a row. For Texas conservatives watching this race, the practical takeaway is that a comfortable primary win is not the same as a comfortable general election, and turnout — not just enthusiasm — will likely decide how much of the recent polling tightening holds up on Nov. 3.
Also on the March 3 ballot: Libertarian and third-party candidates who will appear alongside Abbott and Hinojosa on the November ballot, giving Texans a broader field of options once the general campaign officially begins.